Special Situation: A Spin-Off the Market Isn’t Pricing In

Great asset hidden in a messy structure. 90–180% SOTP upside (conservative case)

If you like special situations, deep value, and roadkill, here’s something for you. If you’re looking for a compounder, skip this.

This is priced for disappointment (jurisdiction + commodity skepticism) — which is exactly why the setup is interesting.

The Set-Up: A conglomerate is simplifying. It’s preparing to spin off its infrastructure business.

Even under conservative assumptions, today’s valuation appears to assign little-to-no value to the upcoming spin.

Conservative sum-of-the-parts suggests ~90–180% upside.

Two potential kickers would increase the upside further: a strategic transaction and a sentiment/regulatory shift.