Treasure Hunting

Treasure Hunting

Portfolio Update: October 2026 + Q3 Earnings outlook

Sebastian Krog's avatar
Sebastian Krog
Nov 01, 2026
∙ Paid

Markets have continued to be choppy in the past couple of weeks. We saw some drawdowns in the past week, driven, of course, by AI fears. However, not only in AI names. Refineries have been part of that drawdown as well. For the first time basically since the rally started along with the Iran war.

TradingView chart
Created with TradingView

This sell-off equally punished names that generate a majority of their earnings from renewable fuel alongside their traditional refineries, like Calumet (CLMT). Despite many confusing headlines, the overall RIN thesis remains the same, regardless of crack spreads.

For me personally, the month was OK. I ended the month up 3.38%, taking me to 72% YTD. Despite having my second-worst drawdown measured in EUR during the month. That sums up markets right now pretty well. Anyway, I am excited for the coming earnings season.

Below the paywall you will find:

  • My current portfolio

  • Buys and sells from October

  • Outlook for the covered names for their Q3 earnings

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