I enjoyed reading the following up as well as the initial write-up. I tend to think the business has bottomed and market will improve or else there will be a further pelt out by farmers in the near future. Farmers have incurred losses for several consecutive years and may be reaching a decision point to retire or stay in the business a while longer. Being the only auction house remaining is a huge advantage for Saga's scale and profitability, but it works only if there is sufficient skin volume to trade. I'm keen to see if pelt prices rise at the next auctions and the resulting volumes. Good work on this.
Thanks for the update. Loved the initial write-up. So 10 years ago, about 90 million mink skins were produced to about 15 million in 2023. Is there a chance for a recovery in the market, or is this a declining market where saga furs takes market share?
I don‘t think, it will recover to 90 million. But after covid some factors made the market look worse than it is actually. China and Russia and were the biggest buyers before, and both have been excluded from attending auction. China is back now. So demand should stay stable and production should increase, once it is profitable again. All under the assumption, that nothing regulatory happens.
Great stuff, are you still invested in any special situations in Germany?
I am still Long Centrotec
Love this write up, such an interesting company. Is there anyway to trade this in the U.S?
Thank you! I am not sure, can you open an account with DeGiro as an US citizen?
I enjoyed reading the following up as well as the initial write-up. I tend to think the business has bottomed and market will improve or else there will be a further pelt out by farmers in the near future. Farmers have incurred losses for several consecutive years and may be reaching a decision point to retire or stay in the business a while longer. Being the only auction house remaining is a huge advantage for Saga's scale and profitability, but it works only if there is sufficient skin volume to trade. I'm keen to see if pelt prices rise at the next auctions and the resulting volumes. Good work on this.
Thank you!
Thanks for the update. Loved the initial write-up. So 10 years ago, about 90 million mink skins were produced to about 15 million in 2023. Is there a chance for a recovery in the market, or is this a declining market where saga furs takes market share?
I don‘t think, it will recover to 90 million. But after covid some factors made the market look worse than it is actually. China and Russia and were the biggest buyers before, and both have been excluded from attending auction. China is back now. So demand should stay stable and production should increase, once it is profitable again. All under the assumption, that nothing regulatory happens.
Thanks for the insights!