Portfolio Update: April 2026
Nicely chugging along
April saw the best month in the stock market since the Covid rebound. The S&P 500 gained over 10%. On the sector side, it was a reversal from Q1, with Tech stocks leading the rally, while energy-related names were roughly flat.
For the whole year, however, Energy is still the strongest sector. Tech stocks have gained back most of their losses from earlier this year and are now the third best-performing sector.
All that while Brent and WTI both trade above $100/bbl as I write this on May 1st. The market seems to not care (anymore) about the war and consequently the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. I don’t have a strong view on how markets play out from here, but I generally tend toward the view that if markets haven’t cared much about the blockade so far, they won‘t in three weeks, especially since at some point the strait should see traffic increase again. It will likely still take a long time until it returns to normal. That said, I can imagine this being long-term bearish for oil, as supply is being increased and as some countries recognize how dependent they are/were. By long-term I mean 5 years plus. In the near term, Brent contracts are above $75/bbl until May 2028.
Update on Colombian thesis
I laid out the thesis for Colombia here. By now we have some polls to draw conclusions from. For that subject, I recommend this guy on X, as well as the Latin American risk report (which was recently featured on Odd Lots).
Bottom line: as Polymarket also indicates, I believe there is a roughly 60–66% chance that a right-wing candidate wins the election.
Since that’s better than a coin flip — albeit not by much — I continue to view Frontera Energy as the best bet, since the company would benefit under both outcomes. A right-wing win would likely trigger a re-rating of Colombian equities broadly, and their pipeline would see higher throughput as E&P companies restart exploration. In a scenario where Cepeda wins and the fracking ban stays intact, their port with its LNG and LPG projects becomes vital for Colombia, as the country plans to import 40% of its natural gas demand through it.
You can find my original write-up here, and an update here.
The first round of the Colombian election is May 31st, with the likely second round on June 21st.
Portfolio Update
In April, my portfolio rose by +8.48%, bringing my YTD performance to +17.8%.
My full portfolio remains top-heavy with almost 40% in my top two picks, where I continue to like the risk-reward at current levels.